THE REAL STORY IS IN THE EXPERT FORECASTS

If you’ve seen the latest price charts, here’s what they really show: continued appreciation, not decline. The pace may shift year to year, but the direction remains up.

Experts break their forecasts into three outlooks. Average, optimistic, and pessimistic, and all of them predict growth through 2029:

• Average forecast: +15% total gain
• Optimistic: +26%
• Even the pessimists: +5%

That means no one is calling for a housing crash, just slower, steadier growth.

HOW THIS COMPARES TO “NORMAL” FOR THE MARKET

For the next five years, home prices are expected to climb 2–3.5% per year, just slightly below the long-term average of 4–5%. Compare that to the pandemic-era surge of 15–20% a year. What we’re seeing now is a healthier, more balanced market.

WHY PRICES WON’T FALL

The 2008 crash was driven by oversupply and risky lending. Today’s story is the opposite: there simply aren’t enough homes to meet demand. Even with affordability challenges, the housing shortage keeps prices moving upward.

And remember, through every economic downturn in the past 50 years, the housing market has always recovered.

BOTTOM LINE

If you’re waiting to buy or sell because you fear a crash, the data tells a different story. Home values are projected to keep rising; the only question is how fast.